FL-04, Ander Crenshaw (R)
Should be safe until he retires
As a result of the 2008 election Florida is represented in
congress by 15 Republican and 10 Democrat representatives, with 2
Republican and 1 Democrat seat changing parties. Bill Nelson-D and
Mel Martinez-R are our Senators, neither of which were up for
reelection in 2008. Our governor is Charlie Crist-R who was also
not up for reelection. The highest profile non-politician is Jeb
Bush-R who is the former governor and not holding (or running for)
any office currently. Jeb Bush is immensely popular in Florida.
The statewide party affiliation is:
Republican: 2006- 3.9M 2008- 3.9M Delta- (0.8)%
Democrat: 2006- 4.2M 2008- 4.3M Delta- 2.6%
Independent: 2006- 2.3M 2008- 2.3M Delta- (0.4)%
Total: 2006- 10.4M 2008- 10.5M Delta- 0.7%
Note that while Florida has slightly more Democrats than
Republicans, they are concentrated in 7 districts (02, 03, 11, 17,
19, 20, and 23) that all have 50% or higher Democrat registration.
Only two districts are similarly strong for the Republicans (01 and
14) with 49% Republican registration. Most other districts have
slight Republican majorities, usually about 42%R to 37%D. This
means that Florida can be put in play for Democrats in a state-wide
or presidential election (as shown in 2008), but district by
district, Republicans will tend to hold the majority of
congressional and legislature representation.
Florida 04
Incumbent Status
Incumbent: Rep. Ander Crenshaw, R
First Elected: 2000 (4th term)
Last Elected: 2006 (69.67%)
Incumbent Status: Running for re-election
Race Forecast: Safe Republican
2008 Results
Ander Crenshaw (R) - 220,023 - 65.2%
Jay McGovern (D) - 117,557 - 34.8%
2008 Funding
Crenshaw: Funding Received - $635,873.00, Spent - $438,083.00,
Remaining Cash - $197,790.00
McGovern: Funding Received - $130,101.00, Spent - $115,546.00,
Remaining Cash - $14,554.00
District Statistics (2000 Census)
2006 Voter Registration: 40D/43R/17I
Population: 639,295
Under 18: 24.4%, Over 65: 11.0%
Married: 56.0%
Non-Hispanic White: 78%, Black: 14%, Hispanic: 4%, Asian: 2%
Foreign Born: 5.8%, Language other than English: 9%
Median Household Income: 43,947, Owner Occupied Housing: 69.3%,
Income above $200k: 2.2
White Collar: 64.8%, Blue Collar: 21%, Services: 14.1%
Bachelor’s Degree: 24%, Graduate Education: 7.9%
Civilian Veterans: 82,606
Party Contact Info
In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not
district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each
Country organization. FL-04 includes parts of Leon, Jefferson,
Madison, Hamilton, Columbia, Union, Baker, Nassau, and Duval
counties.
Leon County web site
Jefferson County web
site
Madison County No Website available
Hamilton County No Website available
Columbia County No Website available
Union County No Website available
Baker County No Website available
Nassau County web
site
Duval County web site
Florida GOP web site
State Conservative Policy and Advocacy
Organizations
James Madison
Institute - J. Robert McClure III, President
Foundation for Excellent in
Education - Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is
Jeb Bush’s organization)
Analysis
Crenshaw has held this seat since 2000. In 2002 and 2004, he ran
unopposed; however in 2006 and 2008 the Democrats started making
him defend the seat. This district includes most of Jacksonville,
the rural counties of north Florida, then runs west and picks up a
small eastern slice of Tallahassee. While this district is pretty
evenly split in party affiliation, Crenshaw has not had a serious
challenge to date. Note that he spent less than $500,000 to retain
the seat, and his opponent was underfunded. He won in 2006 with 70%
of the vote and this year with 65%, meaning he is getting a decent
share of Democrat votes as well. This is a district that should
remain safely in the GOP, until Crenshaw retires. When he does,
however, we will need to field a strong candidate and spend money
to retain the seat, unless the 2010 census results changes the
party affiliation in favor of the Republicans.
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