Missouri 2008 Election Post-Mortem
A Decent Showing by the GOP
Well, the State of Missouri has finally been called for McCain
(Woo hoo!), so I figured I’d write a statewide election results
diary. There’s some good, some not so good, but overall,
Republicans came out alright in the Show-Me-State this year.
Because of Missouri’s similarities to the nation as a whole in
terms of demographics and rural/urban mix, the state is always an
interesting case study.
President: As stated above, Missouri has went
to McCain after two weeks of vote counting. McCain ended up winning
by about 4,000 votes and this marks only the second time in 100
years or so that Missouri has not went with the winner. When
phone-banking for Hulshof and McCain, I and the other volunteers
kept saying to each other that if we can just get McCain to win
Missouri, he’ll win the presidency, because Missouri is always
right. Well, that turned out to be untrue this year, but I for one
am glad - on behalf of the Missouri GOP team - that we will be
delivering our 11 electoral votes to Sarah Palin and that old
guy.
Governor: Jay Nixon (D) easily defeats Kenny
Hulshof (R), 58% to 39%. This is a pickup for the Dems. Matt Blunt,
the incumbent Republican (and son of U.S. Rep Roy Blunt), surprised
everyone by opting not to run for re-election. This put the
Republicans at a big disadvantage, given Jay Nixon’s big name
recognition and massive campaign war chest.
Lt. Governor: Incumbent Republican Peter Kinder
hangs on to win re-election against Anesthesiologist and State
Senator Sam Page. My father actually used to support Page back in
the day because he was in favor of tort reform, however he quit
after Page’s militant pro-abortion views became evident. Anyway,
this is the only statewide race that Republicans managed to win
this year, except for McCain.
Secretary of State: Democrat incumbent Robin
Carnahan wins re-election in a landslide against token Republican
opposition. We really need to start contesting these Secretary of
State races. We now see how important they are. Here in Missouri,
Robin Carnahan got an anti-eminent domain amendment thrown off the
ballot.
Attorney General: Kansas City
Republican-turned-Democrat Chris Koster defeats Kirkwood-area State
Senator Mike Gibbons (R) in a relatively close race. Gibbons is a
great guy, but was hobbled by the fact that he has never tried a
case in his life. Koster hammered him on that and I think they were
(justifiably) effective.
Treasurer: Democrat Clint Zweifel narrowly
defeats Republican Brad Lager.
U.S. House, District 1: William Lacy Clay Jr.
wins re-election. This district encompasses much of the inner city
of St. Louis, as well as north St. Louis County. It is No
Republican even filed in this D +26 district. He faced token
opposition by a Liberatrian party candidate. This is a safe
Democrat district in perpetuity.
U.S. House, District 2: Todd Akin (R) cruises
to re-election over goofball Bill Haas (D). This district includes
many very wealthy areas of west St. Louis county, as well as the
“ex-urbs” of St. Charles, O’Fallon, & St. Peters. Todd Akin
keeps a low profile, but he is one of the finest people in all of
congress. He has a son serving in Iraq, and is one of the most
conservative members of the Republican caucus. This heavily
Republican district is safe as long as Akin continues to run, and
should be reliably Republican with a halfway competent candidate.
Akin typically wins by 15% to 20%.
U.S. House, District 3: Incumbent Russ Carnahan
(D) defeats Chris Sander (R), 66%-30%. Dick Gephardt used to hold
this district. This district consists of the south St. Louis city,
and some southern suburbs and rural areas. While the suburbs and
rural areas vote Republican, the lion’s share of the votes are in
the south city area, which is ethnic and heavily union. I would
call these people “old Democrats”, not lefties. They tend to be
more culturally conservative, yet liberal on economic policy. The
district is has a CPVI of D +8. Carnahan probably keeps this seat
indefinitely barring unusual circumstances.
U.S. House, District 4: Incumbent Ike Skelton
(D) cruises to re-election over Jeff Parnell (R). Skelton is a
blue-dog Democrat who is culturally conservative, and generally
votes with Bush on Iraq and the WoT, but leans left on economics.
The 4th is a primarily rural district that stretches from the
southern and eastern Kansas City ex-urbs all the way out to
Jefferson City in the middle of the state. It also includes a large
amount of rural areas between Jeff City, Kansas City, and on down
south toward Springfield. This district is the second most most
Republican district in the state, with a CPVI of R +11. Ike Skelton
has been here for decades, and will continue to hold the seat as
long as he runs, but a Republican could easily take this seat in
the event he retires. He’s almost 77, FYI.
U.S. House, District 5: Incumbent Democrat
Emanuel Cleaver cruises to re-election by over 30 pts. The CPVI of
the 5th is D +12 and consists of Kansas City proper and parts of
the southern and eastern suburbs. Safe Democrat.
U.S. House, District 6: Early on, incumbent
Republican Sam Graves was thought to be in trouble. The DCCC
targeted this race, but in the end, Graves crushed former Kansas
City mayor Kay Barnes, 59% to 36%. This district has a CPVI of R +5
and encompasses northwest Missouri, which includes some northern
Kansas City suburbs as well as the rural communities of St. Joseph,
Chillicothe, and Maryville. If Graves couldn’t be knocked off this
year against a well-known, well-funded challenger, he’s probably
safe as long as he’s there, barring an unusual event. Safe
Republican as long as Graves is there, and Likely Republican for
the forseeable future.
U.S. House, District 7: Former Minority Whip
Roy Blunt cruises to re-election. The 7th has a CPVI of R +14 and
encompasses southwest Missouri, which includes Springfield and the
surrounding areas, as well as Joplin, Neosho, and Carthage to the
west. Blunt typically faces nothing more than token opposition. In
2006 he was opposed in the primary by transvestite and Code-pink
member Midge Potts. He/she ran again this year as a write-in and
garned 49 votes. I wonder how long Blunt is going to hang on here.
I’m not really worried, as any Republican should keep this seat,
however given that he has stepped down from the leadership, I
wonder how long he is going to stay in the house. Safe
Republican.
U.S. House, District 8: Incumbent Republican Jo
Ann Emerson cruised to re-election facing nothing more than token
opposition. Despite coming from a heavily Republican district (R
+11), Emerson is one of the more liberal Republicans in the caucus.
She is solid on social issues, but leans left on economics and was
one of the few Republicans in the house to vote to cut off funding
for Iraq. She needs to be primaried, IMO, however no one is on the
horizon to do that. This is a “good ole’ boy” district and Emerson
is both well-know and well-liked. The 8th includes all of southeast
Missouri, including Rush Limbaugh’s hometown of Cape Girardeau,
Sikeston, Farmington, & Poplar Bluff. It is almost completely
rural. Her late husband, Bill Emerson, represented the district for
years before he passed away. Safe Republican.
U.S. House, District 9: Blaine Leutkemeyer (R)
defeats Judy Baker (D) to retain an open seat for the GOP. This is
the seat Kenny Hulshof vacated to run for governor. The DCCC
targeted this district as well, but in the end Luetkemeyer wins,
50% to 47%. This district is R +7, so that margin is a bit low, but
I think it reflects the fact that it was an open seat in a bad year
for Republicans. Baker had national cash flowing in as well. I
don’t think Luetkemeyer should have any problem holding this seat,
and that’s good, for he is a solid conservative who had a good
record in the state house. This district includes Columbia, and all
of northeast Missouri, including Kirksville, the northern exurbs of
St. Louis, and the hometown of Mark Twain, Hannibal. Likely
Republican.
Missouri State House: In the Missouri house,
the Democrats won four Republican-held seats, and the Republicans
won one Democrat-held seat, giving the Democrats a pickup of 3,
giving the Republicans an 89-72 majority. This should be considered
a win for the Missouri GOP given that many pundits predicted that
the Dems would retake the MO-House or come close.
Missouri State Senate: In perhaps the brightest
spot for the Missouri GOP, they picked up 3 seats in the State
Senate, including a big upset win by young attorney Kirk Schaeffer
(R) over Chuck Graham (D) of Columbia. The Republicans now hold a
near veto-proof majority in state senate.
All in all, I think the Missouri GOP has to be happy with these
results, in a difficult year for Republicans. It was disappointing
to lost the statehouse, but with comfortable majorities in the
General Assembly, the GOP should be able control much of the agenda
in Jeff City.
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