Opinion Times Electoral Vote Projection
Obama: 291. McCain: 247
Crossposted at
OpinionTimes.com
Yes, I have weeded through as many polls as I can, studied
carefully all the various situations in each state, and I have come
to the conclusion that we just don’t know what will happen
today.
Clearly Barack Obama is the odds on favorite to become President
on January 20, 2009. But there are trends out there which suggest
that John McCain has some momentum coming into today. Here are some
factors to consider as you watch the results come in tonight:
-
Early Voting is becoming a more important factor in elections
than ever. What was the mind of voters in the last month as they
submitted their ballots? Did Obama’s strong lead during that time
give him the edge? Did young voters vote in greater numbers? What
was the ACORN effect if any? -
Will Pennsylvania materialize for McCain? If so, he still may
not win the election. -
If Obama wins Florida or Ohio, the election is over. I don’t see
any way for McCain to pull out a victory without these two
states. -
But there is no guarantee McCain wins if he grabs Florida and
Ohio. Virginia will likely fall into Obama’s hands. Then
Pennsylvania becomes crucial for a McCain victory if he can pull
out a surprise win in Colorado. -
Polls in Minnesota, which does not have substantial early
voting, began to tighten this last week. McCain may have a chance
there. If McCain wins a stunning upset in independent minded
Minnesota, he will likely win the Presidency. -
Republican turnout will be better than expected. There is
something happening which is organic in the conservative grassroots
for which the media never accounts. And McCain’s campaign came so
late into the grassroots game, their organization is merely riding
the wave that the Sarah Palin nomination whipped up. This will
bring Ohio and Florida into McCain’s grasp. Will it also bring
states like Pennsylvania, Colorado and Virginia into play?
So, without further ado, here is my electoral map projecting
Barack Obama grabs 291 electoral votes on his way to the White
House. McCain gathers a respectable 247. But I am crossing my
fingers for good things from Pennsylvania, Colorado and
Virginia.
Check out the map at
OpinionTimes.com
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