The Seven Reasons McCain-Palin Are a Lock to Win
Dan Perrin dared me to front this. Gladly. Dan,
btw, is a Republican strategist, in addition to writing wonky books
on health care. — Erick.
There are seven serious, historic, demographic and other wise
culturally compelling reasons Senator John McCain and Governor
Sarah Palin will win the election on November 4, 2008 – a date of
defeat that will sear itself into the Democratic Party’s collective
consciousness.
The first and foremost reason McCain-Palin will win is the
absolute arrogance, elitism, condescending, patronizing and
in-your-face voter suppression campaign – don’t vote for McCain, he
can not win — being conducted by the national media on Senator
Obama’s behalf.
Americans do not like to be told what to do. But the national
media has become a feminized, electronic vote-for-Obama nagging
machine. There is plenty of precedent for the average American
telling those telling them what to do, to go pound sand, especially
to those who tell them over, and over, and over again. Just ask the
HMOs. Their you-can’t-do-this or you-must-do-only-this business
strategy ended with the average American saying NO to joining
HMOs.
Essentially, the media have been frolicking in the streets in an
orgy of Obama adulation and McCain bashing. Now, they will wonder
why anyone would be disgusted by their behavior, or want to knock
them back in their place? This is a symptom of their chronic and
insular world condition.
The media’s blindness is fueling the anti-media web-networks
with oceans of gasoline. This is why the proliferation of lawsuits
challenging Obama’s claim of natural born citizenship (the original
filed by a life long Democrat who is a former Deputy Attorney
General of the State of Pennsylvania) and the beating up of the LA
Times about its refusal to release the video of Obama speaking at a
pro-Palestinian dinner, are just the tip of the anti-media iceberg
the media themselves has created.
In short, the media cannot be fair. The media will not ever, not
ever admit they had anything to do with the November 4th backlash.
They listen to these criticisms just like an alcoholic listens to
concerns, but who insists they can still have a drink. The media
have hatred and contempt in their hard hearts for any views that do
not meet their pro-Obama criteria. Stand by, national media, for
the big smack down.
Here are the six other reasons McCain-Palin will win:
-
The Gallup poll after Labor Day has historically been a
predictor of the winner of the Presidential election. The person
leading in that poll wins the Presidency. The Republican
convention, pushed onto Labor Day by the Summer Olympics muddied
the waters on this historic fact, but the Gallup poll a week later
showed McCain ahead of Obama, predicting the McCain victory. -
There are six states that since 1972 have voted for the winning
Presidential candidate. These are predictor states. They pick
winners every time. McCain will win every one of the following six
states: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and
Tennessee. -
Elderly and some other Jewish voters were already uncomfortable
about voting for Obama, but the recent comments by Farrakhan that
when Obama speaks, the Messiah is speaking, or that Obama’s victory
will do great things for the Nation of Islam, or the statement by
Jesse Jackson that there will be “fundamental change” in America’s
foreign policy, especially with regard to Israel – is causing a
hemorrhaging of Jewish support. -
Women who feel Senator Clinton was treated unfairly by the
Democratic Party, by the media and by Senator Obama — who did not
even vet Senator Clinton to be his running mate – will remember.
This voting block, you will recall, lay in the weeds in the pre-New
Hampshire primary polling. The win by Senator Clinton was a shock,
undetected by the polling. And these were Democratic Party voters
who were undetected – not the other voters Obama will face November
4th. Obama’s youth vote will not post to the polls, they never do.
The young think: the media says Obama will win, so why should I
vote? But the 40 and 50 and 60 something women voters who voted for
Senator Clinton have three alternative plans to make sure they get
to the polls, regardless of a hiccup in their work or child care
responsibilities. They will vote, and they will vote against
Senator Obama. -
Today’s unstable world does not bode well for Senator Obama. The
instability in the stock market and related job and mortgage fears
do not equate with voting for the ING (Inexperienced New Guy.) In
an affirmation of Mark Penn’s observation that the strong leader
almost always wins the Presidential election, a mid-west
hairdresser with no party affiliation told me the country has very
serious problems, and that is why she is voting for the strongest
leader. -
Finally, the reason that the world and the media incorrectly
will tag as the reason for McCain’s victory (despite the foregoing
six other reasons) will be the Wilder or Bradley effect. Simply
put, Asians, Whites and Hispanics have and will lie to pollsters
about their intention to vote for Senator Obama. According to the
Associated Press, this will cost Obama six points at the polls. The
AP estimate could be low. In the case of Bradley and Wilder, the
spread between a “lead” in the polls and actual votes cast was in
the low double digits.
So, when McCain-Palin wins – credit or blame the media. Their
harping and yelping for Senator Obama created massive Obama
over-exposure, anger and resentment that will be expressed in the
voting booth on November 4th.
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